2020 Democratic Primary, Episode 1: Iowa
Previewing and answering questions you might have about Monday's Iowa caucus.
After well over a year of campaigning — about three, if you’re John Delaney — we’re ready to count the first votes in the 2020 Democratic Primary. Of course, Monday night’s Iowa caucus is just the first; we’ll still have 49 states and several territories’ worth of primaries to go afterward. But Iowa can make or break a presidential campaign — and today, we’ll take a deep dive into the state that has inadvertently shaped so much of modern American history, and will do so again.
IOWA
(Photo via Wikimedia Commons)
Nickname: The Hawkeye State
Demographics: 90.7% white, 6.2% Hispanic, 4.0% black, 2.7% Asian, 0.5% Native American
Caucus date: Feb. 3
Polls close at: 9 p.m. EST, 7 p.m. local time
Previous election results
2016, General: Donald Trump 51.1 %, Hillary Clinton 41.7%
2016, Dem Caucus (1st): Hillary Clinton 49.9%, Bernie Sanders 49.6%
2008, Dem Caucus (1st): Barack Obama 37.6%, John Edwards 29.7%, Hillary Clinton 29.5%
2004, Dem Caucus (1st): John Kerry 37.6%, John Edwards 31.8%, Howard Dean 18.0%, Dick Gephardt 10.6%
Best song performed by a state native: “Unchained Melody,” The Everly Brothers
Wait. What’s happening Monday?
The Iowa Caucus, the first election of the primary season.
What is a caucus?
It’s hard to explain, but The Washington Post’s Dave Weigel did a far better job than I could here.
Okay. Why does Iowa matter?
Because it’s always the first state to vote in presidential primaries.
Why is it always first?
Because — and I’m not making this up — the Iowa Democratic Party just woke up and decided to one day.
Isn’t that a pretty arbitrary reasoning behind something so crucial?
Welcome to the wonderful world of American politics!
Who gets to vote in this?
Iowa is a semi-closed caucus, meaning Democrats and non-affiliated voters who are already registered to vote can participate, but Republicans cannot. You can register to vote at caucus locations.
Who’s gonna win?
Well, we won’t know until the votes are counted, obviously. In Iowa, however, our best barometer might be Ann Selzer’s Des Moines Register poll. Political junkies consider Selzer to be one of the best pollsters in the business. This year, her most recent poll has Sanders at 20%, Warren at 17%, Buttigieg at 16% and Biden at 15%. While Sanders’s lead over Warren and Buttigieg is within the margin of error, both the New York Times/Siena and Emerson — A-rated pollsters by FiveThirtyEight — had Sanders opening up a lead of 7 and 9 percentage points, respectively, on the rest of the field. Monmouth and Suffolk, also both A-rated, have Biden leading. Selzer herself will have another poll out Saturday night.
Wait, but aren’t the polls usually wrong?
Not Selzer.
In 2004, Selzer had Kerry at 26%, Edwards at 23% and Dean at 20% the day before the caucus, even as Dean and Gephardt were considered frontrunners. Actual result: Kerry 37.6%, Edwards 31.8%, Dean 18.0%
In 2008, three days before the caucus, she had Obama at 32%, Clinton at 25%, and Edwards at 24%. Actual result: Obama 37.6%, Edwards 29.7%, Clinton 29.5%
In 2016, she had Clinton at 45%, Sanders at 42%. Actual result: Clinton 49.9%, Sanders 49.6%.
So, it’s safe to say either Biden or Sanders will win first place. Of course, as the nomination is decided by number delegates won — which, in turn, is allocated proportionally to vote — the real result to watch for Monday night is the winner’s margin of victory. But given Iowa will be the first actual results after so much fantasy football, the actual horse-race results of the caucus will set the tone in media coverage and campaign strategy for the remainder of the campaign.
What should I watch for as results come in?
If Bernie Sanders is going to win Iowa, it’ll be because he maintained or expanded his margins in the state’s urban population centers. In 2016, he carried seven of the state’s 10 most populous counties, his largest margins coming in Johnson (home to the University of Iowa) and Story (Iowa State University) counties.
Two of the three he did not win — Polk and Dallas counties — are home to Des Moines and its suburbs, respectively. Indeed, as the state’s capital, Des Moines is home to much of the state’s political establishment. Many of them, including U.S. Reps. Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne, have endorsed Biden; Rep. Dave Loebsack endorsed Buttigieg, while the Des Moines Register endorsed Warren. It’s hard to see a path to victory in Iowa for Biden and Buttigieg that does not involve winning over these establishment-minded voters in the Des Moines metro area, or a path for Warren that does not involve converting some of them.
Is there like, a bellwether county? Like, a county whose results tend to mirror the results of the state overall?
Yes. Believe it or not, the results of Iowa County, Iowa have mirrored statewide results for each of the state’s last three Democratic primaries, right down to the margin between the candidates. Located in the state’s southeastern quadrant, Iowa County is a great deal more white than its namesake — 98% white to the state as a whole’s 91%. Its median family income and per capita income, according to Census Bureau data, are more in line with the state as a whole. If you believe class is the deciding factor in how people vote, which it very well might be in a state as homogenous as Iowa, then you want to pay attention to Iowa County on Monday.
If my preferred candidate doesn’t win Iowa, what’s gonna happen?
If you’re a Michael Bloomberg fan, nothing, because he began his campaign after the deadline for caucus eligibility, so he’s not on the ballot. Sorry. If you’re a Michael Bennet or Tulsi Gabbard voter and you somehow found this newsletter, please email me at aryahodjat11@gmail.com. I just want to talk.
Yang, Steyer and Klobuchar don’t have much of a path to the nomination as it currently stands, given their poll standing. They stand to lose nothing, but will become frontrunners in the incredibly high odds they do win.
For Warren and Buttigieg, winning — or at least, doing well — could make or break their campaigns. Both of their coalitions are built upon white liberal voters, of which Iowa has many. They won’t have an opportunity like this again for a while — Sanders and Biden’s coalitions are more diverse, and polls show then leading in soon-to-vote New Hampshire and South Carolina, respectively. If one of Warren or Buttigieg were to finish ahead of Sanders or Biden — or, shock the world and win the whole damn thing, like Jimmy Carter before them — we could see a very different race. If one of them finishes fourth and/or gets leapfrogged by Klobuchar or Yang, don't be surprised if they drop out.
So. Who do you think is gonna win?
My educated guess is that Sanders will win Iowa. He cleaned up in state caucuses in 2016, winning all besides Iowa and Nevada — and even those were by slim margins, as his campaign struggled to build and maintain a national infrastructure. And with his campaign’s appeal to less politically-engaged voters — like, say, Joe Rogan — if any candidate were to beat the polls, it would be him.
Politics and Prozac is a biweekly newsletter about the media, elections, and their consequences. You can subscribe here. The author, Arya Hodjat, is a senior studying journalism and political science at the University of Maryland. You can find him on Twitter @arya_kidding_me, or email him at aryahodjat11@gmail.com. Until next time, take care.